A PRECARIOUS REPUBLIC: The Third Republic, the Karabakh Conflict, and Genocide Politics

Gerard J. Libaridian

London : Gomidas Institute, 2023,

xlviii + 582 pp,

ISBN 978-1-909382-76-3, pb.,

UK£45.00 / US$55.00

To order please contact books@gomidas.org

PREFACE (xi)

INTRODUCTION (xv)

PART I. THE THIRD REPUBLIC (1)

1. AN OVERVIEW OF THE ROLE OF THE DIASPORA IN LIGHT OF RECENT CHANGES IN ARMENIA (3)

2. FOREIGN POLICY, GENOCIDE, DIASPORA (19)

3. THE CHALLENGE OF STATEHOOD. ON THE EVOLUTION OF ARMENIAN POLITICS (24)

4. ARMENIA’S STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE (35)

5. THE US, RUSSIA, AND IRAN MADE DEMANDS AT THAT TIME (56)

6. DEMOCRACY: DEVIATIONS AND EXTERNALITIES (61)

7. A LOOK AT THE UNFINISHED REVOLUTION (69)

8. THE PROMINENCE OF MILITARY ALLIANCES HIGHLIGHTS THE FAILURE OF DIPLOMACY (76)

9. CRITICAL MOMENT IN ARMENIAN HISTORY: AN APPEAL (83)

10. NONETHELESS, THE WEST NEEDS RUSSIA (99)

11. RUSSIA IS PLAYING ITS OLD GAME (112)

12. FEAR AS STRATEGY, OR WHY WE DO NOT HAVE A REAL DEBATE (116)

13. INDEPENDENCE OR HYE TAHD? WHY DID THE PEOPLE OF ARMENIA VOTE FOR INDEPENDENCE? (142)

PART II. THE KARABAKH CONFLICT (155)

14. THE QUESTION OF KARABAKH. AN OVERVIEW (157)

15. A HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF THE OFFICIAL NAGORNO- KARABAKH PEACE PROCESS (193)

16. THE POLITICS OF PROMISES (211)

17. THE STEP-BY-STEP APPROACH, THE PACKAGE DEAL, AND FORGOTTEN MOMENTS (223)

18. ASSESSING 20 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE AND CONFLICT (234)

19. FORGING THE FUTURE OF THE CAUCASUS: THE PAST 20 YEARS AND ITS LESSONS (252)

20. HOW TO THINK, OR HOW NOT TO THINK ABOUT THE KARABAKH CONFLICT (266)

21. THE KARABAKH LEADERSHIP: A QUESTION OF RESPONSIBILITY (322)

PART III. THE ARMENIA-TURKEY PROBLEM (329)

A. ON ARMENIA, TURKEY AND ARMENIAN-TURKISH RELATIONS (331)

22. A UNIQUE EXPERIMENT ON UNDERSTANDING TURKISH/ARMENIAN RELATIONS (331)

23. RESOLVING AN "INTRACTABLE CONFLICT,” NORMALIZING RELATIONS WITH TURKEY (336)

24. BRIDGES HRANT BUILT (344)

25. "MINORITIES” AND HUMAN RIGHTS IN TURKEY (351)

B. DEBATING THE GENOCIDE (361)

26. OBJECTIVITY AND THE HISTORIOGRAPHY OF THE ARMENIAN GENOCIDE (361)

27. THE HISTORY OF IMPERIAL POLITICS AND THE POLITICS OF IMPERIAL HISTORY (374)

28. A DISCOURSE ON THE TURKISH POLICY QUARTERLY ARTICLE BY TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTER

AHMET DAVUTOĞLU (394)

29. ERDOĞAN AND HIS ARMENIAN PROBLEM (458)

30. PERSPECTIVES ON FUTURE RESEARCH ON THE ARMENIAN GENOCIDE (433)

C. THE POLITICAL DIMENSIONS OF GENOCIDE ANNIVERSARY COMMEMORATIONS (444)

31. REFLECTIONS ON THE 90TH ANNIVERSARY COMMEMORATION ACTIVITIES (444)

32. ON THE OCCASION OF THE 95TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE GENOCIDE. A DEPOPULATED ARMENIA WOULD

HAVE DIFFICULTY BEING A VIABLE STATE (451)

33. THE 100TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE GENOCIDE IS BEING USED (457)

34. WHAT KIND OF BAZAAR ARE THEY OPENING WHEN THEY OFFER US GENOCIDE RECOGNITION? (463)

PART IV. ACING TOWARD THE SECOND KARABAKH WAR (471)

35. A STEP BACKWARDS, THIS TIME A BIG STEP (475)

36. WE ARE NOT READY TO TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE CONSEQUENCES OF OUR STATEMENTS (479)

37. MAXIMALISM IS A CHEAP AND LAZY VERSION OF PATRIOTISM EXCEPT THAT IT COSTS US TOO MUCH (488)

PART V. AFTER THE DEBACLE (501)

38. WHY NEGOTIATIONS FAILED (505)

39. WHAT HAPPENED, AND WHY. SIX THESES (516)

40. MANY THOUGHT THAT WAR WOULD BE FUN (522)

41. WE ARE VIOLATING THE MIND AND SPIRIT OF OUR PEOPLE (534)

42. AGAINST HYSTERICAL NOISE (547)

43. THE LESSONS OF THE WAR OF 2020, LEARNED AND NOT LEARNED (552)

44. POSTSCRIPT (570)

About the Author (581)

G. J. Libaridian explores a number of fundamental issues regarding Armenia’s foreign and security policies and scrutinizes Armenian political culture as the framework within which positions have been defined and solutions sought. The previously published and unpublished materials collectively analyze the political thinking that characterized the response to the challenges that the Third Republic faced and failed to address from the standpoint of statehood versus a vague but powerful nationalist discourse. The author achieves this difficult task by studying themes such as Armenia and Armenians as agents of their own history as opposed to the dominant sense of victimhood, maximalism confused with patriotism, the role of mediators and other states as saviors, the comfort zone of illusions and legends as opposed to hard realism and pragmatism. Libaridian argues that the dominant but faulty framework led leaders of the state and Diaspora to a policy that bet on war rather than peace, a second Karabakh war that Armenia lost in 2020, a war that should have been avoided.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Gerard J. Libaridian is a retired historian and diplomat. Between 1991 and 1997 he served as advisor to the first President of Armenia and was First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Secretary of the National Security Council, and negotiator with Azerbaijan and Turkey He has taught and written on Armenian history and authored numerous books, articles and reports on contemporary Armenian, Middle Eastern and South Caucasus politics and international relations. He has also taught and lectured extensively in institutions of higher learning in the US and internationally. Most recently (2000-2012) he was Alex Manoogian Professor of Modern Armenian History at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, where he also served as Director of the Armenian Studies Program. Libaridian is currently working on a number of book projects.

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